Phil,
Possibly yes, and possibly no. There are some other things you have to keep in mind. If you remember my old saying "Visability is VIABILITY" you will remember that just because someone is not selling CD'S or RECORDINGS ,doesn't nessasarily mean they are NOT MAKING MONEY. If you see someone EVERYWHERE, (Chris Stapleton), on television, on benefits, on major tours, it means they are probably doing a lot of business in live and in merchandise. Major television shows can increase your fan and audience base by thousands.
With Frankie, you have to remember his strong fan base is through the Midwest. So he is a guy that can command $30-$40 a ticket himself. This is in 10,000-15,000 seat arenas and amphitheaters. A few of his shows were with Bob Seeger in Pontiac Silverdome. So you are looking at someone who could concievably be pulling in $30,000-$50,000 PER NIGHT.
Also, you have to remember that Frankie is a guy who booked $25,000 private parties, BEFORE HIS RECORD DEAL.
Coupled with the fact that he had TWO multi multi millionaires willing to bankroll him before his deal and he might not owe as much to record companies.
Artists money is always about TOURING, personal appearances, and merchandise. Most artists who are really in the pocket make about 15% of their money from recording. They make 85% in touring and merchandise. Now those that are not strong in touring, they are going to have a harder climb. And you have to keep in mind ENDORSEMENTS.
Someone like CARRIE UNDERWOOD will make more money from Hair care commercials, or the intro to Monday Night Football than probably all of their recordings.
Sturgill Simpson, was routinely selling out 5000 seat theaters, at $50 a ticket for the past 6 or 7 years, WITHOUT a record deal. Same with Ed Sheeran. You find those touring artists who might have been touring for years under the radar of mainstream radio, yet having a HUGE touring career, making literally millions of dollars a year, without major radio success. They are mostly NICHE market people.
There are the ICONIC artists like John Prine, Allison Krause, Emilou Harris, Delbert McClinton, Bonnie Raitt, James Taylor, Carol King, who do HUGE concert business without major radio success. And of course there is the BIGGEST DOG OF ALL in that form of business, JIMMY BUFFETT who took one number ten song, MARGARITAVILLE, into a $2 BILLION DOLLAR BUSINESS.
Yes ,there are not that many people who can do that, but there are quite a few that are not as tied to record or radio success, and do huge business in other income streams.
And again, like everything, this is nothing new. There used to be "RADIO SONGS" and "CAREER SONGS." There might be an artist or a song that never really charted at the top of the charts, maybe hitting the top 20 or so, yet the artist has a career forever. They are called CULT FOLLOWINGS.
The truth is that Frankie could have never gotten a record deal and would have had a huge touring career, which is really all he ever wanted. "I just want to ride a bus and play music." was one of the first things he said to me. That is why when we started writing, we did almost all songs that would be great for live audiences. And he could lose his record deal tomorrow and with three number ones, could conceivably tour for the next 20 years.
See why FAN BASE is the ultimate arbiter of an artist's success? That is why. If an artist establishes themselves as a touring force. they are going to do quite well. It is why when I once sat down with a Record producer, and he said "We don't consider recording success the same as live success." At the time I thought "Well, you better..." But I didn't say anything.
But the fact is that if you are a strong live act ,you will have a career for long after your records stop selling. It is why Tony Bennett and Jerry Lee Lewis still have a career. And why Chuck Berry would go out pretty much until the end of his life. Sometimes it is sad. I had a guy last week who went to see Steven Stills of Crosby Still's Nash and Young, last week and said he was terrible, "waddling out on stage, and really being a shell of himself."
But usually if you have some strategic planning about you and not put your eggs into one basket, find a niche and always cater to your fans, you will have a career. Having recording and radio success is a big help. But not the end all. Ask pretty much any act in Texas.
MAB
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